Experts Predict That There Will Still Be 3% Appreciation In The Year.
RMB exchange rate accelerated with appreciation of the US dollar
As of yesterday, the central bank "two remittance" for a whole year.
During this period, the exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar has reached a record high.
For the future direction of the RMB, most experts believe that there will still be room for appreciation of the yuan against the dollar, but there will be a risk of depreciation for the euro and other international currencies.
In the past year, the two-way floating characteristics of RMB are obvious.
exchange rate
Resilience has increased significantly, and the renminbi has risen or depreciated against a basket of currencies.
In the middle price, the exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar continued to appreciate. The central parity of the RMB against the US dollar appreciated by 6.8275 and 6.4716, and the appreciation rate of RMB was 5.2%.
The RMB exchange rate is changing from the past focus on the US dollar exchange rate to the relative stability of a basket of currencies.
Lu Zheng commissar, senior economist at Xingye Bank, said that
The two exchange rate reform
Since the yuan has been more stable against a basket of currencies than ever before, judging from the stability of a basket of currencies will be more meaningful than the focus on the US dollar exchange rate.
Because in the current pattern of trade and capital diversification, the RMB exchange rate will not meet the needs of the diversification of trade and investment currencies if it only focuses on the change of single currency.
Since the beginning of this year, the appreciation rate of RMB against the US dollar has exceeded 2%.
Many analysts give different answers to the future appreciation of the renminbi.
Standard Chartered analysts predict that by the end of the year, the exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar will rise by 3%, to 1 yuan to 6.25 yuan.
At the same time, the person expects the central bank to enlarge the floating trading range, which will create conditions for the RMB's recent moderate acceleration of appreciation and curb persistent inflation and enlarge the floating range of RMB from the current 0.5% to 1%.
Chen Bingcai, deputy director of the former capital project management division of the State Administration of foreign exchange, pointed out that enterprises can adapt to the annual 5%-7% of the RMB exchange rate.
appreciation
Range.
He predicts that the RMB exchange rate can continue to appreciate 10%-15%, that is, the central parity of RMB against the US dollar will rise to 5.7-6.0, and then fluctuate normally.
"The key to the future trend of the RMB against the US dollar depends on the trend of the US dollar in the international market. If the US dollar index falls, the RMB will maintain an annual appreciation of 4%-5% against the US dollar. If the US dollar index is to appreciate, then the pace of RMB appreciation against the US dollar may stop again."
Lu commissar thought.
Zhao Qingming, senior research fellow of China Construction Bank, pointed out that the appreciation of RMB is not well estimated at the next stage, but at present, the appreciation trend of the RMB against the US dollar can not be reversed.
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